Futures rise amid trade deal hopes; Fed decision ahead - what’s moving markets
05/07/2025
U.S. stock futures tick up, bolstered by news of an impending meeting between U.S. and Chinese representatives that could mark the first step in cooling ongoing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. The focus is also on an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and any clues the central bank may give about its future policy plans. AMD’s current-quarter revenue guidance tops estimates, but the semiconductor group flags a steep hit from new U.S. chip export rules.
1. Futures rise
U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Wednesday, as investors assessed an upcoming meeting on trade between U.S. and Chinese officials.
Markets were also looking ahead to the latest monetary policy decision from the Fed, with the central bank’s potential signals for its interest rate path in focus.
By 03:38 ET (07:38 GMT), the Dow futures contract had gained 218 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had increased by 32 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had advanced by 132 points, or 0.7%.
On Tuesday, the main averages on Wall Street fell, dragged down in part by U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on recent trade negotiations. Speaking during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump suggested that the U.S. doesn’t have to sign deals, other countries "have to sign deals with us".
Early last month, Trump rolled out punishing new tariffs on a host of countries, but later delayed most of these levies for 90 days in the wake of deep ructions in stock and bond markets. White House officials have since been tasked with securing a bevy of individual trade deals before the elevated tariffs take effect in July.
2. Trump officials to meet with Chinese counterparts
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reportedly due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng -- considered to be Beijing’s main representative for economic and trade matters -- this week for talks.
In a statement, Bessent said he looked forward to "productive talks as we work towards rebalancing the international economic system towards better serving the interest of the United States".
Citing a Chinese statement, Reuters reported that China has agreed to meet with Bessent and chief U.S. trade negotiator Jamieson Greer in Switzerland this weekend. While Beijing said it plans to "re-engage" with the U.S., it warned that it will "never agree" to a deal if Trump officials attempt "to use talks as a cover to continue coercion and blackmail".
The world’s second-largest economy was left out of Trump’s tariff postponement and currently faces sweeping U.S. levies of at least 145%.
China, who has imposed its own retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. imports, has become a central target of Trump’s tariff agenda, with the president arguing that the country is a "candidate for the ’chief-ripper-offer’ on trade". China has responded with its own heated rhetoric, ratcheting up tensions with Washington.
3. Fed decision ahead
The Federal Reserve is broadly expected to leave interest rates unchanged after its latest two-day gathering on Wednesday, placing the spotlight on any indications it may give about policy decisions later this year.
Despite ongoing pressure from Trump to lower interest rates, the central bank has previously signaled that it will take a "wait-and-see" approach to any future changes to borrowing costs. Officials have been wary about uncertainty around the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy, especially on inflation and employment.
Policymakers will be grappling with relatively muddled economic data. While figures showed that U.S. gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter, consumer spending remains solid and the labor market has proved to be resilient.
But with the next batch of rate forecasts from officials not due out until June, the attention will likely be squarely on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference for any clues.
Extra focus may also be placed on potential commentary from Powell around the independence of the Fed. Trump has indicated his displeasure with Powell for not pushing harder to bring down interest rates, although he has said he has no plans to oust the Fed leader.
4. AMD’s second-quarter sales guidance beat
Shares in Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) edged higher in extended hours trading on Wednesday after the chipmaker unveiled a second-quarter revenue guidance that beat Wall Street estimates.
Analysts suggested that the upbeat current-quarter outlook was likely driven by many clients racing to lock in purchases prior to the implementation of U.S. tariffs.
AMD has been wrestling with new U.S. restrictions on the export of high-end artificial intelligence-processors to China, threatening a crucial region for the company.
The firm said it expects to incur a hit of $1.5 billion to sales this year because of the export curbs, with CEO Lisa Su flagging that the impact will be most felt in the second and third quarters. Still, Su sees annual AI chip revenue from its data center unit climbing in the "double digits".
Elsewhere on Wednesday, several groups are anticipated to report their latest results, including ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), entertainment behemoth Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS), and chip designer Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM).
5. Gold slips
Gold prices fell as the announcement of trade talks between officials from U.S. and China boosted risk appetite and sapped haven flows, while the dollar also firmed before the Fed decision.
The yellow metal had gained some ground this week, coming back in sight of record highs as a lack of clarity on U.S.-China trade tension drove up haven demand. But this trend appeared to have reversed somewhat on Wednesday.
Spot gold slid 1.3% to $3,386.97 an ounce, while gold futures for June fell 0.8% to $3,395.86/oz by 03:35 ET.
Meanwhile, oil prices rose, pushing away from four-year lows on trade hopes and signs of healthy demand in the world’s largest consuming nation.
U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels in the week ended May 2, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, indicating demand remains strong. Official U.S. government data from the Energy Information Administration are due later in the session.
At 03:37 ET, Brent futures climbed 1.5% to $63.05 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.8% to $60.14 per barrel.